Election Madness!

As you are probably aware of, there was a relatively important election Tuesday night. Republicans took control of the House of Representatives and the Democrats' numbers in the Senate shrunk. And no pot for California. All in all, it was not a great night for a liberal-minded person like me. But what does it all mean? I will give you my opinion on Tuesday's results as best I can (because I know you are all dying to hear my opinion).

First off, let us focus on Proposition 19 in California. Prop 19 would have legalized the use of marijuana for those 21 and over as well as letting the state government regulate and tax its sales and distribution. Had it passed, California would have been renamed Amsterdam West. Being a liberal college student, I wish it would have passed. I believe it would hurt the drug cartels and also help raise revenue for a state that is in a very dire financial situation. But I will stop before I end up going on a lengthy drug rant.

Next up, the House. Once again the lower half of the legislative branch has a Republican majority, as the GOP gave the Democrats in the House a "shellacking," to quote President Obama. This can be a good thing, however. John Boehner will become Speaker of the House, which is a huge step forward for orange people. Jokes aside, this should bring about more compromise and bipartisanship that could help Obama get reelected in 2012.

This is a fine line to walk though. If Obama and the Democrats compromise with the Republicans and it works out well (i.e. job creation and resurrecting the economy), there is a danger that voters will credit the Republicans for the turnaround and subsequently vote Obama out of office. If the Democrats refuse to compromise, they come off looking bad as well because their refusal to engage in bipartisanship (which has already hurt them in this election) would likely drive voters away from them. They would appear as if they are putting politics ahead of getting things done. The key is then how well the Republicans' policies work if they are implemented.

Now for the Senate. The Democrats maintained their majority, but it shrunk considerably from a near filibuster-proof number of 59 to at least 52 (Washington's senate race is still too close to call; CNN has the Democrat leading by about 28,000 votes with 74% precincts reporting). So far the Democrats have lost six seats (ND, WI, IL, IN, AR, PA), with the losses in Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana being the most painful. The Democrats were able to reelect Harry Reid (though I would not have been real sad to see him go) and defeat Christine O'Donnell (a huge step backwards for witches wanting to run for political office).

The losses of Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh and Obama's old seat all hurt because they were winnable. Russ Feingold had been a three-term senator, and usually it is very hard to unseat an incumbent. Evan Bayh's decision to retire from the Senate also hurt because he did late in the primary season, leaving Indiana state Democrats rushing to find a replacement to nominate and run against former Indiana senator Dan Coats. And losing Obama's old seat is disappointing because the Democrats had an opportunity to avoid it being a close race. I do not mean to decry the choice of Alexi Giannoulias, but from what I understand there were better choices than him (state attorney general Lisa Madigan I believe was one because she is quite popular in Illinois).

As for the various races for governor, I only really payed attention to California and Illinois (I voted via absentee ballot for the state of Illinois). I was glad to see that Meg Whitman, Republican and former Ebay president and CEO, lost in the California race. California, arguably the most liberal state in the US, needs to stay liberal so that it can set the trends that other states can follow (such as, for a time, gay marriage). Meanwhile in Illinois, it looks like Pat Quinn (who took over as governor when Blago was impeached) will hold onto his slim lead and get reelected. Which does not mean much. Choosing between Quinn and Republican Bill Brady was like picking between either having your arm or leg broken. Neither one was a good option. But at least Quinn is not Blago, and that is an improvement.

Now I want to talk about a minor thing for a second. On the Illinois ballot, there was a amendment to change the Illinois state constitution to make it easier to kick a sitting governor out of office by allowing a petition for a recall election and then a special election to replace the ousted governor. I am not of the origins of this proposition but I have a feeling that the Blago incident had a powerful influence. The amendment easily passed with over 60% of the vote.

I voted against it, and I would like to explain why. My position is that this gives voters too much power to the point where I feel like they can abuse the amendment beyond its intended purpose. I understand why people would want such an amendment following Blago' adventure, but giving voters the power to recall a governor could hypothetically lead to voters ousting someone outside the bounds of what should be taken into account when wanting to remove an elected official. But I was in the minority. Oh well.

What does this election mean? This is the big question that is being asked and analyzed and analyzed and analyzed and analyzed. So how am I going to address that question? Analyze! I think there a couple things to take out of this election and what it means for the next two years. To begin with, 2011 is going to be a make-it-or-break-it year for Obama. Because of the Republican control of the House, he will need to navigate that thin line very carefully, as I said earlier. Can he do it? I think he can, but I am worried that will not be the perception of most people, as many do not understand how beneficial health care reform will be or how/why the stimulus has yet to rescue the economy.

I also think this is an opportunity for the Republicans to show they actually have legitimate policy ideas that will work and can garner voter support. They have spent the first two years of Obama's presidency focusing completely on obstructionism instead of attempting to develop serious legislation that had realistic chances of passing. The ball is in their court, and it is time to make something happen. If they can, they have a legitimate, if still challenging, chance of taking the White House in 2012. If they cannot, they will have helped keep Obama in office beyond 2012.

The main concern for both parties moving forward must be job creation and resurrecting the economy. That was the biggest issue for voters in this election according to exit polls, and it should be the main focus going forward. The stimulus, if it were actually implemented properly, could help. But thanks to resistance by Republican-led states and misinformation about how it has and has not worked, there exists a negative perception of how the economy is getting fixed.

What do I hope will happen over the next two years? I hope that the Republican-led House understands their place (they are still in the minority because Democrats still control two-thirds of the legislative process: the Senate and the presidency) and do not try to act as if they are the ones who will lead the effort on bipartisanship or expect Democrats to compromise on Republican issues more than Democratic issues. I also hope the Democrats realize this and show some guts by not caving to Republican demands.

But realistically, I do not expect much to happen. Obama will probably call on Democrats to make a greater effort for bipartisanship  on lesser issues and call on Republicans to put politics aside on more important issues and make concessions on some Democrat demands. However, I do not expect there to be any major legislation that both sides can agree on. Relatively minor polices may get passed, but I believe that Obama has gotten all the major legislation he wanted to get passed (by taking advantage of the great congressional majorities he had in his first two years). I expect Obama will try and maneuver himself to appear as a negotiator rather than a legislator in an effort to appear less partisan than he has been. And I think he can pull it off because he is a master at understanding the public's perception of him and knowing how to turn it to his advantage.

Until next time, Orange Hat Guy