Monday, October 25, 2010

Checking In On The Mike Martz Experiment

If you are a Bears fan, you have probably noticed the remarkable decline the team has been on over the last few games. There is plenty of blame to go around: the offensive line, Jay Cutler's play, Lovie Smith's coaching and Mike Martz's decision-making. When the Bears first decided to hire Martz, I was quite sure it was the wrong move. So wrong, in fact, I would have rather kept Ron Turner, as terrible as he was.

I wrote an email back in February to a family member when she asked me about what I thought of the Martz hire and I have to say that what I predicted has been fairly accurate (granted it has only been seven games). In summarizing my email, let us look back at my reasons for not hiring Martz and see how they have matched up with the current state of the team:
  1. His quarterbacks (not including Jay Cutler) have a propencity for throwing interceptions. A lot of interceptions. Here are the numbers for QBs under Martz:
    • Kurt Warner in STL had 65 ints in 52 games
    • Marc Bulger in STL had 44 ints in 37 game
    • Jon Kitna in DET had 42 ints in 32 games
    • J.T. O'Sullivan in SF had 11 ints and 11 fumbles in 9 games
    • Shaun Hill in SF had 8 ints in 9 games (8 starts).
 Looking at that list, only ONE quarterback under Martz has averaged under one interception per game. ONE. Remind me again what problem plagued Cutler throughout last season?
   
     2.  His quarterbacks have a propencity for getting hit a lot. Warner, Bulger and Kitna all were either injured at some point or took WAY too many sacks. Martz's system relies heavily on the O-line to do an outstanding job of pass blocking, and because he favors the pass so much it is inevitable that the QB will take a lot of hits. Here are the sack and games played numbers for QBs under Martz:
      • Kurt Warner was sacked 114 times in 52 games and also missed 28 games over 5 seasons
      • Marc Bulger was sacked 116 times in 44 games and also missed 11 games in 3 seasons as a starter (never played a full season under Martz)
      • Jon Kitna was sacked 114 times in 32 games
      • J.T. O'Sullivan was sacked 32 times in 9 games
      • Shaun Hill was sacked 23 times in 9 games
         3.  His tight ends have a propencity to not be included much in the offense because they're too busy blocking. Vernon Davis, SF tight end had 2 touchdowns while starting 16 games under Martz. Once Martz left, he had 13 the next season. 13! Where was he under Martz? Greg Olsen is in no way a blocker and will probably be under utilized and overlooked.

    Now let us look at how Jay Cutler and the Bears are doing this season under Martz:
    • Jay Cutler has 7 ints in 6 games
    • Jay Cutler has been sacked 27 times in 6 games and already missed a game due to a concussion
    • Greg Olsen is on pace to catch 41 passes, which would be the lowest of his career since his rookie year and has also had 2 games where he caught zero passes, also a first since his rookie season
    So far the Mike Martz experiment is not going well, as I predicted. But there is hope: there is a good chance he will not be around next year.

    Until next time, Orange Hat Guy

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